IN light of the recent general elections in which Turkey saw the ruling AKP lose its majority and the Kurdish-focused HDP rise up, we have tried to look through the crystal ball of what happens next.
The Justice and Development (AK) Party came to secure the largest number of votes — 41 percent — and to claim 258 seats in the Grand National Assembly, 18 short of a simple majority.
The second-placed Republican People’s Party (CHP) saw 132 deputies elected while the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the People’s Democratic Party (HDP) both won 80 seats.
The figures still need to be verified by the Supreme Election Council but once announced, the deputies of the 25th Grand National Assembly must be sworn in within five days. The process is expected to be completed by June 20.
The next stage sees the new lawmakers select a parliament speaker, the 27th in the history of the Republic of Turkey, by secret ballot.
Given the political makeup of the new assembly, this may not be as straightforward as in the recent past when the AK Party enjoyed a majority.
A first round of voting requires the speaker to be selected by two-thirds of deputies, or 376 votes. If no candidate achieves this, a second round can be passed by the candidate receiving a simple majority of 276 votes. If there is still no winner, the candidate with the largest number of votes in the third round will be selected.
Following the parliamentary selection, attention turns to forming a government, perhaps the trickiest dilemma facing Turkey’s representatives.
The country faces three options — a coalition government, a minority government or snap elections under the care of an interim government.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who led the AK Party as prime minister for 11 years, will initially ask the AK Party, as the largest party, to form a government.
If Davutoglu is unable to form a coalition with any of the other three parties — and none have indicated they would be willing to join the AK Party in government — tradition dictates the president should offer the second-placed party the chance to create an administration.
If neither the AK Party nor the CHP can form a government within 45 days, the president must call for a fresh election and appoint a prime minister within five days to form an interim government consisting of representatives from all four parties according to their number of deputies.
Once this interim government has been approved by a parliamentary vote of confidence, the assembly will be dissolved and the election process restarted.
Unofficial consultations between the ruling and the main opposition parties have begun to test the waters as to whether the two bitter political rivals can form Turkey’s next government.
However, the CHP could form a coalition government with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the People’s Democracy Party (HDP). It appears all options are on the table.
Another record was set by the number of women MPs set to take a seat in the Turkish parliament after an unofficial tally estimated a total of 96 female parliamentarians securing a place in the Turkish grand national assembly – a record high and up from 79 in 2011.